POLITICS: Shiite Ayatollah Is Warning U.N. Against Endorsing Charter Sponsored by U.S.

March 23, 2004
By JOHN F. BURNS

BAGHDAD, Iraq, March 22 — Iraq's most influential Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has warned of "dangerous consequences" if the United Nations endorses the American-sponsored interim constitution for an independent Iraq that was adopted over Shiite protests two weeks ago.

The warning came in a letter released by Ayatollah Sistani's office on Monday, four days after it was delivered in New York to Lakhtar Brahimi, the chief United Nations envoy to Iraq. It amounted to a warning that the ayatollah's followers, by far the most powerful political bloc in Iraq, could move to paralyze American plans for a smooth transfer of sovereignty on June 30 unless Shiite terms for changing the interim constitution were met.

Ayatollah Sistani warned in his letter that he would boycott a coming visit to Baghdad by Mr. Brahimi, refusing to "take part in any meetings or consultations" conducted by him or his emissaries, unless the United Nations offered guarantees that it would not endorse the interim constitution.

After nearly a year of discounting the value of a United Nations political role in Iraq, the Bush administration shifted its position recently, saying it strongly favored the United Nations having a part in helping to establish an interim government and organize elections.

Mr. Brahimi, a former foreign minister of Algeria, is to arrive here late this month or early in April to help broker the talks on a transitional government and election arrangements. But Shiite groups that accept Ayatollah Sistani as their ultimate political arbiter have said they will use negotiations over the interim authority — blocking agreement, if necessary — to expand the Shiite majority's powers before an elected government takes over at the end of 2005.

The Sistani letter was the latest move in a complex game of maneuvers with the American occupation authority and the United Nations. As the political timetable here shortens, the ayatollah has appeared to oscillate between ultimatums that stop just short of threatening to provoke public disorder and conciliatory moves encouraging hopes of the Americans that he will in the end prove an ally in their push for a peaceful transfer.

After Shiite leaders on the American-appointed advisory body, the Iraqi Governing Council, agreed earlier this month on an interim constitution that included elaborate minority guarantees, they staged a last-minute boycott of a signing ceremony. It was an effort to force a scaling-back of the blocking powers granted to minorities, particularly Sunni Muslims and Kurds, who are fearful of Shiite domination. After talks with Ayatollah Sistani's aides at his headquarters in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, the Shiite leaders signed the new charter, only to recant immediately after the ceremony by again denouncing the minority guarantees.

As he has with the Americans, the ayatollah has played hot and cold with the United Nations, signaling only a week ago that he favored its participation in the talks on an interim government and elections, then backtracking with his letter to Mr. Brahimi. His moves have kept senior American officials here on tenterhooks, uncertain how far he is prepared to go to realize his demands — and unsure of what they will do if Shiite demands lead to an impasse that threatens to leave Iraq with no government capable of taking over authoritatively on June 30.

Ayatollah Sistani's warnings to Mr. Brahimi were stark. The interim constitution, he said, "enjoys no support among most of the Iraqi people," — meaning the Shiites who account for about 60 percent of the 25 million people — and "confiscates the rights" of the national assembly that is scheduled to be elected by Jan. 31 next year to draw up a permanent constitution. Because of that, he said, the elections he has persistently demanded — for the assembly, for the constitution it will draw up, and ultimately for a permanent government — "become useless."

The cleric said he feared that the United Nations Security Council resolution he had demanded as an international guarantee of elections could be expanded to endorse the interim constitution, "obliging the Iraqi people to abide by it against their will."

He added, "We warn that such a step would be unacceptable to the majority of the Iraqi people, and would have dangerous consequences in the future." He offered no elaboration on what those consequences might be.

American officials have played down the possibility that the maneuvering here could descend into open conflict, or even civil war, saying American powers that will remain after June 30 will be enough to ensure stability. One top official told reporters on the weekend that the interim constitution would matter less in the 18 months before there was an elected government than the competence and honesty of the individuals appointed to head the ministries.

But that, too, the official acknowledged, has been giving the Americans cause for unease. The official said the Iraqi groups on the Governing Council had submitted names for more than 80 deputy minister positions — jobs, the official said, that would be crucial to the government's efficiency. Of the names submitted, he said, about 50 were people with no known qualifications other than their political affiliations.

The official said L. Paul Bremer III, the chief of the American occupation authority, had "put a stop" to the Iraqi machinations, and had demanded that the council members provide career histories of each nominee. "What we'll do is create a professional, uncorrupt administration," the official said, and trust that Iraqis appointed to head the ministries, not the details of the interim constitution, will prove decisive in keeping the country stable.